Impact of Covid-19 on Architects' Workloads
The three scenarios modelled are based on the shape of the graph for GDP (economy as a whole).
Scenario 1: Short, sharp shock
Assume a very sharp shock to the economy with a relatively short period of lockdown after which the economy will emerge and rapidly return to pre-crisis levels.
Result: Architects’ workloads return to trend relatively quickly. A ‘V’-shaped chart, representing a quick recovery.
Scenario 2 : Sharp shock, slow unlocking
Assumes a very sharp shock to the economy with a long period of lockdown during which parts of the economy will open up but much of the economy will remain restrained with lower than usual levels of activity.
Result: Architects’ workloads remain subdued for longer and recovery is slower. A ‘U’-shaped chart, flatter than scenario 1.
Scenario 3 : Repeated lockdowns
Assumes a very sharp shock to the economy with much of economic activity restrained accompanied by various periods of partial release from lockdown but also periods of further lockdown.
Result: Architects’ workloads fall rapidly with further fall in year 2 and remain low for 2-3 years as investor confidence fails to recover. An extended ‘U’-shaped chart.
Possible Projections of Architects' Workloads, 2020 - 2022