Scenario 1: Short, sharp shock

 

Assume a very sharp shock to the economy with a relatively short period of lockdown after which the economy will emerge and rapidly return to pre-crisis levels.

 

Result: Architects’ workloads return to trend relatively quickly. A ‘V’-shaped chart, representing a quick recovery. 

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Scenario 2 : Sharp shock, slow unlocking

 

Assumes a very sharp shock to the economy with a long period of lockdown during which parts of the economy will open up but much of the economy will remain restrained with lower than usual levels of activity.

 

Result: Architects’ workloads remain subdued for longer and recovery is slower. A ‘U’-shaped chart, flatter than scenario 1.

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Scenario 3 :  Repeated lockdowns

 

Assumes a very sharp shock to the economy with much of economic activity restrained accompanied by various periods of partial release from lockdown but also periods of further lockdown.

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Result: Architects’ workloads fall rapidly with further fall in year 2 and remain low for 2-3 years as investor confidence fails to recover. An extended ‘U’-shaped chart.